Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $5 in 2026?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.029. up 0.024 over the period, from 0.005. Range 0.005 to 0.036. 143 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.054	21	21
0.060	80	101
0.589	7	108
0.590	483	591
0.997	5	596
0.998	9	605
0.999	798	1,403

Spread0.049Mid0.029

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.005	29	29
0.004	37	66
0.003	150	217
0.002	350	567
0.001	322	889

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.995	29	29
0.996	37	66
0.997	150	217
0.998	350	567
0.999	322	889

Spread0.049Mid0.970

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.946	21	21
0.940	80	101
0.411	7	108
0.410	483	591
0.003	5	596
0.002	9	605
0.001	798	1,403

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
Dr.PNL	Yes	246.06
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	91.59
beyond0	Yes	80
GuyFromTinder	Yes	40
Numitus1994	Yes	21
VonVonagh	Yes	7.41
Started-with-20-USD	No	486.06

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
08:10:07	BUY	Yes	0.01	40	$0.40
08:00:07	BUY	Yes	0.009	8	$0.07
19:16:11	BUY	Yes	0.054	21	$1.13
10:22:05	SELL	No	0.942	0	$0.01
10:22:05	SELL	Yes	0.031	0	$0.00
21:31:35	SELL	Yes	0.04	40	$1.60
19:59:33	SELL	Yes	0.04	19	$0.77
19:29:39	SELL	Yes	0.02	21	$0.41
19:29:29	BUY	No	0.74	486	$359.68