Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $30 in 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
Rewards: 40 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.55. up 0.05 over the period, from 0.50. Range 0.20 to 0.75. 101 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.60	5	5
0.61	80	85
0.63	60	145
0.65	70	215
0.66	21	236
0.72	39	275
0.73	60	335
0.74	80	415
0.76	60	475
0.77	55	530
0.78	20	550
0.79	20	570

Spread0.11Mid0.54

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.49	20	20
0.48	15	35
0.31	35	70
0.30	20	90
0.18	20	110
0.11	20	130
0.05	12	142
0.04	35	177
0.03	50	227
0.02	36	263
0.01	65	328

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.51	20	20
0.52	15	35
0.69	35	70
0.70	20	90
0.82	20	110
0.89	20	130
0.95	12	142
0.96	35	177
0.97	50	227
0.98	36	263
0.99	65	328

Spread0.11Mid0.46

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.40	5	5
0.39	80	85
0.37	60	145
0.35	70	215
0.34	21	236
0.28	39	275
0.27	60	335
0.26	80	415
0.24	60	475
0.23	55	530
0.22	20	550
0.21	20	570

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
LSMRPM	Yes	100
Aggggaa12	Yes	42
2B9S	Yes	20
Flingflonger	Yes	20
AJSV	No	94.2
Quantum777	No	20
0x7943…29b4	No	20
0xa07e…b77f	No	20
CosmicCedar	No	20
GuyFromTinder	No	6.84

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
20:24:59	BUY	No	0.4399999988	33	$14.59
17:03:53	BUY	No	0.42	42	$17.64
13:55:38	BUY	Yes	0.39	20	$7.80
08:35:11	BUY	Yes	0.3	20	$6.00
06:16:15	SELL	Yes	0.12	15	$1.84
00:16:38	SELL	Yes	0.41	14	$5.89
00:16:33	BUY	No	0.4399999805	14	$6.32
23:05:11	SELL	Yes	0.54	1	$0.54
10:58:50	BUY	No	0.59	20	$11.80
08:10:05	BUY	Yes	0.41	20	$8.20
08:05:23	SELL	Yes	0.42	19	$7.98
08:04:39	BUY	Yes	0.412495	80	$33.00
03:10:50	BUY	No	0.72	19	$13.68
03:10:48	SELL	Yes	0.28	1	$0.28
22:32:18	BUY	Yes	0.29	20	$5.80
10:13:54	BUY	Yes	0.27	19	$5.13
09:53:09	BUY	Yes	0.28	1	$0.28
09:53:09	BUY	Yes	0.28	19	$5.32
20:15:09	BUY	No	0.49	20	$9.80