PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

wellwell

0xfd762c55f922f6c70d0eba46c15c7abdb3146c23

Realised P&L
$-59.93
Volume
$105.7k
Markets traded
1,092
Open portfolio
$1.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,092
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration17.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration54.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? · No0.9480.986$646.00+$24.90
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · No0.9260.945$370.88+$7.29
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9610.980$39.18+$0.74
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.5730.635$22.17+$2.17
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7470.845$22.01+$2.56
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No0.9000.975$21.66+$1.66
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? · No0.9640.981$15.69+$0.26
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.8600.905$11.58+$0.58
X banned in any European country by December 31? · No0.8900.895$8.95+$0.05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.5000.885$8.85+$3.85
Will Bodø/Glimt win Norway Eliteserien? · Yes0.5200.625$6.25+$1.05
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · No0.6000.945$4.72+$1.73
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No0.7200.972$4.05+$1.05
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? · No0.3200.930$2.91+$1.91
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.9440.976$2.07+$0.07

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-25 14:58Will Russia invade another country in 2026?BUY0.9499999911$80.00
07-21 16:44Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.7299999876$10.00
07-19 21:39Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.584$9.88
07-19 20:35Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.5909999787$10.00
07-19 20:29Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.416$9.76
07-19 20:28Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.4259999829$10.00
07-19 20:27Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.588$9.76
07-19 20:27Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.588$9.75
07-19 19:45Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.6029999858$10.00
07-19 19:44Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.6019999768$10.00
07-19 19:44Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.397$7.94
07-19 14:26Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?BUY0.964$15.42
07-19 14:23X banned in any European country by December 31?BUY0.89$8.90
07-19 14:22Will Bodø/Glimt win Norway Eliteserien?BUY0.52$5.20
07-19 14:18Will Russia invade another country in 2026?BUY0.92$163.99