Toyflagman
0xed3c0cdacbdf0b580b516b77eeacbb756a658ae5
- Realised P&L
- $-82.77
- Volume
- $22.0k
- Markets traded
- 180
- Open portfolio
- $8.81
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded180
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.41at 0.023Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?
- +$11.50at 0.080Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$8.14at 0.005Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
- +$6.11at 0.145Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$4.31at 0.036Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-24 09:44 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in August? | BUY | 0.0439999916 | $4.85 |
| 08-09 17:43 | Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 08-09 17:42 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August? | BUY | 0.006999993 | $1.00 |
| 08-09 17:42 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.00 |
| 08-09 17:42 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in August? | BUY | 0.0109999892 | $1.00 |
| 08-09 17:42 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? | BUY | 0.104761817 | $1.00 |
| 08-09 17:40 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0219999787 | $1.00 |
| 08-09 17:40 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.037 | $4.53 |
| 06-10 18:19 | Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $5.59 |
| 06-10 18:18 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 06-10 18:18 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002999997 | $1.00 |
| 06-10 18:18 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.0689999387 | $1.00 |
| 06-10 18:17 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 06-10 18:16 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.005999994 | $1.00 |
| 06-07 08:20 | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.0070000001 | $1.00 |