0xcd17494aec279d25b34a5e2b3e33314e16a98f9f
0xcd17494aec279d25b34a5e2b3e33314e16a98f9f
- Realised P&L
- $21.33
- Volume
- $578.66
- Markets traded
- 144
- Open portfolio
- $8.14
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded144
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.325 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9? · No | 0.270 | 0.325 | $1.20 | +$0.20 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 6? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.510 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9? · No | 0.730 | 0.705 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.651 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.255 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.195 | $0.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.240 | $0.62 | −$0.38 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.420 | $0.55 | −$0.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.92at 0.208Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?
- +$6.58at 0.240Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August?
- +$6.19at 0.251Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 00:22 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 6? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 16:18 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 08:05 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:01 | Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 11:04 | Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 23:36 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 14:27 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 06:02 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 21:26 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 12:11 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 03:50 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 18:14 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 10:11 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 01:33 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 17:31 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |