SmallPuddles
0xcbb3e3521b201345ac6f2fdc741c22c692eed024
- Realised P&L
- $-905.11
- Volume
- $6.2k
- Markets traded
- 75
- Open portfolio
- $100.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-14.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded75
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)97.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.78at 0.587Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
- +$26.60at 0.530Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$23.35at 0.672Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
- +$19.07at 0.709Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?
- +$17.70at 0.530Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 20:58 | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $23.89 |
| 07-28 20:54 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.2 | $22.60 |
| 04-21 00:26 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | SELL | 0.9103246753 | $42.06 |
| 04-08 21:02 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.997 | $30.21 |
| 04-07 21:09 | US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | BUY | 0.193820698 | $65.00 |
| 04-04 00:39 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | BUY | 0.1899999959 | $30.00 |
| 04-04 00:38 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | BUY | 0.4599999939 | $30.00 |
| 04-04 00:38 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | BUY | 0.7199999981 | $30.00 |
| 04-04 00:38 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | BUY | 0.8299999978 | $30.00 |
| 04-04 00:37 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.5099999952 | $30.00 |
| 04-04 00:36 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1769999932 | $20.00 |
| 04-04 00:32 | Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | SELL | 0.9866550218 | $45.19 |
| 04-02 20:05 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $26.99 |
| 04-02 20:04 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? | SELL | 0.999 | $31.91 |
| 04-01 21:23 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | BUY | 0.554455442 | $20.00 |