0xc9db6c957b2ba169608907443f3991b8d01b2ad3
0xc9db6c957b2ba169608907443f3991b8d01b2ad3
- Realised P&L
- $-227.49
- Volume
- $95.0k
- Markets traded
- 381
- Open portfolio
- $67.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded381
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration8.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$65.54at 0.381US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$54.34at 0.525US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$24.48at 0.376US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$19.30at 0.250US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$18.81at 0.334Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 00:27 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 00:14 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 00:41 | Will Trump pardon anyone by October 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 00:05 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.7099999432 | $1.00 |
| 08-15 00:09 | Will Trump say "Ballroom" this week? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 00:46 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 04:00 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 22:45 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? | BUY | 0.99799901 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 12:05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.2 | $3.71 |
| 08-03 11:14 | Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 10:09 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.756 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 21:14 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.728 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 21:08 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7329993293 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 21:01 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7489998959 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 11:19 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.4329999086 | $1.00 |