zthunderfury
0xc682d7943aad07c246986a7aa2989cfcb17817bb
- Realised P&L
- $22.2k
- Volume
- $6.60M
- Markets traded
- 586
- Open portfolio
- $263.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded586
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.6kat 0.025Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$5.9kat 0.927Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- +$5.7kat 0.608US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$4.2kat 0.351US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.5kat 0.981US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET | BUY | 0.9613086558 | $102.84 |
| 11-01 21:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET | BUY | 0.8510813333 | $191.49 |
| 11-01 19:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | BUY | 0.9409253333 | $211.71 |
| 11-01 17:43 | Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $179.99 |
| 11-01 15:28 | Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $93.55 |
| 11-01 11:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET | BUY | 0.986 | $81.65 |
| 11-01 11:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $92.87 |
| 11-01 10:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET | BUY | 0.9345777778 | $210.28 |
| 11-01 10:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $674.99 |
| 11-01 08:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $222.75 |
| 11-01 07:36 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $7.0k |
| 11-01 04:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET | BUY | 0.9811044932 | $65.72 |
| 11-01 04:09 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.2 | $181.35 |
| 11-01 04:09 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1966381755 | $3.4k |
| 11-01 04:09 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.8203087969 | $13.4k |