PolyBot

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Traders

zthunderfury

0xc682d7943aad07c246986a7aa2989cfcb17817bb

Realised P&L
$22.2k
Volume
$6.60M
Markets traded
586
Open portfolio
$263.0k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded586
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration80.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration14.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.8940.945$37.8k+$2.0k
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8370.825$37.8k−$543.01
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.8700.865$27.9k−$170.17
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? · No0.9710.997$26.4k+$701.50
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No0.9220.945$19.9k+$481.04
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9500.955$19.0k+$99.54
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.5000.817$14.2k+$5.5k
GTA 6 launch postponed again? · No0.8120.962$9.7k+$1.5k
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.8630.853$8.5k−$100.34
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · No0.8670.915$8.3k+$438.50
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · No0.7290.955$7.4k+$1.8k
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? · No0.8230.855$7.1k+$264.14
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9440.982$7.0k+$269.60
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No0.9700.978$6.6k+$50.70
Iran Nuke before 2027? · No0.9280.964$3.9k+$142.54

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 22:58Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ETBUY0.9613086558$102.84
11-01 21:58Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:45PM-5:00PM ETBUY0.8510813333$191.49
11-01 19:58Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:45PM-3:00PM ETBUY0.9409253333$211.71
11-01 17:43Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ETBUY0.99$179.99
11-01 15:28Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ETBUY0.99$93.55
11-01 11:43Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ETBUY0.986$81.65
11-01 11:13Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ETBUY0.99$92.87
11-01 10:58Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ETBUY0.9345777778$210.28
11-01 10:28Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ETBUY0.99$674.99
11-01 08:13Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ETBUY0.99$222.75
11-01 07:36Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.95$7.0k
11-01 04:13Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ETBUY0.9811044932$65.72
11-01 04:09Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.2$181.35
11-01 04:09Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.1966381755$3.4k
11-01 04:09Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.8203087969$13.4k