zthunderfury
0xc682d7943aad07c246986a7aa2989cfcb17817bb
- Realised P&L
- $29.6k
- Volume
- $5.65M
- Markets traded
- 479
- Open portfolio
- $250.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded479
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.9kat 0.927Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- +$5.7kat 0.608US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$4.2kat 0.351US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.4kat 0.681Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.918Maduro out in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 14:55 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $4.81 |
| 09-08 14:55 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $4.81 |
| 09-04 22:15 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.961 | $0.47 |
| 09-04 22:15 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.961 | $15.46 |
| 09-04 22:14 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.961 | $23.88 |
| 09-04 13:01 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $2.5k |
| 09-04 13:01 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.9586742227 | $2.4k |
| 09-04 10:54 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.963 | $19.26 |
| 09-01 17:25 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.60969634 | $437.79 |
| 08-31 15:26 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.969 | $4.84 |
| 08-31 15:25 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.969 | $4.84 |
| 08-31 15:25 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.969 | $5.76 |
| 08-31 15:24 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.969 | $8.82 |
| 08-31 15:24 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.969 | $13.91 |
| 08-31 02:11 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | SELL | 0.6572621333 | $985.89 |