zthunderfury
0xc682d7943aad07c246986a7aa2989cfcb17817bb
- Realised P&L
- $20.4k
- Volume
- $5.09M
- Markets traded
- 451
- Open portfolio
- $226.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded451
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.7kat 0.608US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$4.2kat 0.351US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.5kat 0.674Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.918Maduro out in 2025?
- +$2.9kat 0.896Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 10:45 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.779 | $3.90 |
| 08-02 07:58 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.9k |
| 08-01 18:23 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31? | BUY | 0.9798725416 | $129.54 |
| 08-01 18:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.997 | $1.2k |
| 08-01 18:13 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.74 | $7.5k |
| 08-01 16:38 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | SELL | 0.54 | $1.80 |
| 08-01 04:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.4246647774 | $364.15 |
| 08-01 04:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | SELL | 0.51 | $327.42 |
| 07-31 19:57 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.58 | $638.95 |
| 07-31 18:44 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $8.2k |
| 07-31 17:53 | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | SELL | 0.21 | $98.07 |
| 07-31 05:15 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.93 | $1.0k |
| 07-31 02:02 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 07-30 15:53 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.8502215614 | $4.8k |
| 07-30 02:36 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.88 | $1.2k |