ourdemocracy2
0xbdcb293dd41148a20895d0e818c0d96c0756e811
- Realised P&L
- $6.6k
- Volume
- $10.81M
- Markets traded
- 603
- Open portfolio
- $30.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded603
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$617.8kat 0.326Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$185.1kat 0.318No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$38.9kat 0.978Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
- +$18.3kat 0.810Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$9.0kat 0.071Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 10:28 | Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31? | BUY | 0.95139988 | $47.56 |
| 10-04 10:28 | America.gov removed by October 31? | BUY | 0.977880597 | $196.55 |
| 10-04 10:26 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in October? | BUY | 0.93 | $93.00 |
| 10-04 10:26 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in October? | BUY | 0.945907173 | $33.63 |
| 10-04 10:25 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in October? | BUY | 0.9358837143 | $327.56 |
| 10-04 10:25 | Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $120 in October? | BUY | 0.96 | $96.00 |
| 10-04 10:24 | Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $115 in October? | BUY | 0.97 | $97.00 |
| 10-04 10:24 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in October? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 10-04 10:24 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in October? | BUY | 0.98 | $147.00 |
| 10-04 08:54 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in October? | BUY | 0.983 | $58.98 |
| 10-04 08:54 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in October? | BUY | 0.9196704 | $137.95 |
| 10-04 08:53 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in October? | BUY | 0.986 | $59.16 |
| 10-04 08:52 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $74 in October? | BUY | 0.954 | $122.68 |
| 10-04 08:46 | Will XRP dip to $0.60 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $139.50 |
| 10-04 08:45 | Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9266557377 | $56.53 |