Kevin-Warsh
0xaf1555f0edbcf21cf66caf779fa84b8396cf5dd2
- Realised P&L
- $8.5k
- Volume
- $1.39M
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.011 | $873.45 | −$7.3k |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.517 | 0.555 | $447.61 | +$30.40 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? · No | 0.300 | 0.315 | $315.00 | +$15.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.007 | $217.65 | −$5.6k |
| Will SB Energy IPO by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.383 | 0.560 | $16.88 | +$5.33 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.7k |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.7k |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.7k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.8kat 0.137US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$21.9kat 0.156Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$16.2kat 0.421Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$10.2kat 0.131Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$7.7kat 0.173Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 20:53 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.47 | $0.11 |
| 09-16 20:50 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.997 | $52.9k |
| 09-16 20:26 | Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.62 | $2.77 |
| 09-16 20:25 | Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.63 | $9.45 |
| 09-16 20:01 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.52 | $196.56 |
| 09-16 20:00 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.48 | $2.0k |
| 09-16 19:38 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.8k |
| 09-16 19:35 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.5 | $1.9k |
| 09-16 19:33 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.5k |
| 09-16 19:33 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.5k |
| 09-16 19:33 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.5k |
| 09-16 19:18 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.49 | $49.00 |
| 09-16 19:17 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.51 | $174.11 |
| 09-16 19:17 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.49 | $18.83 |
| 09-16 19:03 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.44 | $623.65 |