PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

nellojello

0xa8ae9f8f2a92cb27a73791bb816e65071ca38eb7

Realised P&L
$4.7k
Volume
$337.8k
Markets traded
227
Open portfolio
$13.1k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded227
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration48.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran full airspace closure by August 15? · No0.7730.900$3.1k+$435.84
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · No0.6240.530$878.29$155.12
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · No0.7200.645$645.00$74.85
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0980.146$366.25+$120.47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? · No0.9200.906$295.43$4.56
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.7600.675$270.00$34.00
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.2600.207$166.00$42.00
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.1000.136$136.03+$36.03
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1420.128$127.50$14.50
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.3530.155$119.28$152.13
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? · Yes0.3280.520$109.20+$40.28
Will Trump fly in original Air Force 1 again this month? · No0.9361.000$106.79+$6.79
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? · No0.4480.385$77.00$12.56
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.0430.037$43.42$6.58
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31? · Yes0.3060.045$4.47$25.53

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 09:26US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?BUY0.5591073229$354.00
08-02 09:22Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in August?BUY0.0667505$13.35
07-30 06:33WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 30?BUY0.65$240.45
07-29 23:06Iran full airspace closure by July 31?BUY0.9285972592$400.00
07-29 23:05Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?BUY0.3056194484$30.00
07-29 23:04Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?BUY0.6116950167$200.00
07-29 23:03Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?BUY0.0996133288$100.00
07-29 22:58Will Trump fly in original Air Force 1 again this month?BUY0.9359753054$100.00
07-29 22:56US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?BUY0.9199999982$300.00
07-29 22:36Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?BUY0.0431787224$50.00
07-29 22:31Fed rate hike in 2026?SELL0.37$339.99
07-29 13:01Iran full airspace closure by August 15?BUY0.7132174895$1.1k
07-29 13:01Iran full airspace closure by July 31?SELL0.9024036518$1.1k
07-29 09:18Iran full airspace closure by August 15?BUY0.7799999981$265.00
07-29 09:17Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.002$100.00