Metusalem
0xa65ccb877d2cb355dc74ad3be7134de30ac732fb
- Realised P&L
- $16.2k
- Volume
- $4.00M
- Markets traded
- 906
- Open portfolio
- $16.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded906
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.6kat 0.225Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$2.7kat 0.289Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$2.1kat 0.304US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$2.0kat 0.612MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.6kat 0.238US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 17:23 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7827859131 | $36.56 |
| 08-01 17:22 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.801 | $40.05 |
| 08-01 12:24 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.68 | $6.62 |
| 07-31 13:39 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.971 | $9.72 |
| 07-31 09:27 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.976 | $4.88 |
| 07-31 09:24 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.024 | $9.60 |
| 07-31 09:00 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.025 | $10.00 |
| 07-30 06:36 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.44 | $44.00 |
| 07-29 03:16 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.03 |
| 07-29 03:14 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.003 | $5.86 |
| 07-27 15:43 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.73 | $73.00 |
| 07-27 14:07 | Will J.D. Vance be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 07-27 04:40 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.497 | $7.46 |
| 07-27 04:40 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.497 | $24.85 |
| 07-27 04:30 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $31.50 |