PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Metusalem

0xa65ccb877d2cb355dc74ad3be7134de30ac732fb

Realised P&L
$16.2k
Volume
$4.00M
Markets traded
906
Open portfolio
$16.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded906
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration13.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · No0.9240.955$2.1k+$68.71
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8130.795$1.9k$44.20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4190.345$1.0k$221.29
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No0.7620.800$880.00+$42.00
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No0.9660.965$790.89$1.23
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No0.8860.915$659.94+$20.99
Fed rate hike in 2026? · No0.4460.325$650.00$242.00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.4170.430$645.00+$20.00
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No0.4100.435$553.29+$31.36
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.0420.040$493.75$31.24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · Yes0.1880.125$437.50$219.48
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? · Yes0.8140.835$381.34+$9.45
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No0.5690.705$352.50+$68.00
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · No0.7600.875$350.09+$46.01
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.8170.745$335.24$32.25

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-01 17:23Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?BUY0.7827859131$36.56
08-01 17:22Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?BUY0.801$40.05
08-01 12:24Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?BUY0.68$6.62
07-31 13:39Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.971$9.72
07-31 09:27Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?BUY0.976$4.88
07-31 09:24Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?SELL0.024$9.60
07-31 09:00Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?BUY0.025$10.00
07-30 06:36Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.44$44.00
07-29 03:16IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?SELL0.002$0.03
07-29 03:14Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL0.003$5.86
07-27 15:43Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.73$73.00
07-27 14:07Will J.D. Vance be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?BUY0.059999946$1.00
07-27 04:40US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?BUY0.497$7.46
07-27 04:40US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?BUY0.497$24.85
07-27 04:30Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?BUY0.63$31.50