PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

KolmogorovDoob

0xa61f50fb52d63529e91fbd08b43f44c1c0e8f609

Realised P&L
$-27.02
Volume
$2.6k
Markets traded
28
Open portfolio
$230.05

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded28
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration79.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample4 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · No0.4200.585$58.50+$16.50
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026? · Yes0.2000.365$27.38+$12.38
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.0880.077$22.69−$3.17
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · No0.8790.935$15.95+$0.95
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? · Yes0.3260.255$12.51−$3.49
Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21? · No0.4300.790$9.19+$4.19
Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026? · Yes0.2100.145$7.25−$3.25
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21? · Yes0.8900.970$5.45+$0.45
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? · No0.9040.962$5.32+$0.32
Trump renames AI by September 30? · No0.7400.765$5.17+$0.17
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · No0.9300.945$5.08+$0.08
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes0.9810.995$5.07+$0.07
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · No0.9000.905$5.03+$0.03
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? · No0.9900.989$4.99−$0.01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026? · No0.9800.975$4.97−$0.03

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-25 08:01Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21?BUY0.4299999991$5.00
09-25 07:56OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 26?BUY0.9$5.00
09-25 01:00Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21?BUY0.8899999858$5.00
09-25 00:57Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.98$5.00
09-25 00:53Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?SELL0.76$4.36
09-24 11:46Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?BUY0.9039999103$5.00
09-24 05:55OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 25?BUY0.9399999962$5.00
09-24 05:54OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 24?BUY0.96$5.00
09-24 05:51Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?BUY0.7090295767$5.00
09-24 05:40Trump renames AI by September 30?BUY0.7399999734$5.00
09-24 05:38Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?BUY0.899999928$10.00
09-24 05:37Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?SELL0.075$65.87
09-21 12:38Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?BUY0.42$42.00
09-21 12:37Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?BUY0.3261856609$16.00
09-21 12:36Will AI solve the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem in 2026?BUY0.08$4.00