PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Salzpack

0x8ba7c26fb8f4e3416c0604734e899bca2ffaa1c6

Realised P&L
$-19.78
Volume
$3.1k
Markets traded
84
Open portfolio
$63.45

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded84
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration41.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample34 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)35.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.3600.945$10.50+$6.50
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No0.5630.805$8.58+$2.58
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · No0.7400.915$6.18+$1.18
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? · Yes0.2600.415$4.79+$1.79
US strike on Mexico by December 31? · No0.6700.972$4.35+$1.35
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0280.015$3.63−$3.38
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? · Yes0.2500.285$3.42+$0.42
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes0.0880.024$2.41−$6.59
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? · Yes0.1500.080$2.13−$1.87
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.2690.183$2.04−$0.96
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.3710.374$2.02+$0.02
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.4830.444$1.84−$0.16
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1650.036$1.31−$4.69
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.1620.045$1.30−$3.40
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.2300.275$1.20+$0.20

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-20 17:02Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026BUY0.0349999995$1.00
10-05 17:21Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?BUY0.032$1.00
10-05 17:19Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?BUY0.25$3.00
10-05 17:17Netanyahu out by end of 2026?BUY0.6199999587$3.00
10-05 17:15US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1299999948$1.00
10-05 17:13Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.4829999708$2.00
10-05 17:13Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.16$1.00
09-23 16:33Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?BUY0.0507442481$1.00
09-21 17:45Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?BUY0.2$3.00
07-09 18:04Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.089999919$1.00
07-09 18:03Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?BUY0.037999988$3.00
07-06 12:55Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?BUY0.0279999733$1.00
07-06 12:50Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?BUY0.0429999868$3.00
07-02 19:05Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?BUY0.260082153$3.00
07-02 19:03Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?BUY0.2299998275$1.00