PolyBot

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Traders

0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA9604

0x8a98109fb0f1d87d9bfcb4486ba3587b95c51b92

Realised P&L
$140.5k
Volume
$38.65M
Markets traded
1,194
Open portfolio
$2.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,194
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration14.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2410.255$305.71+$16.11
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · No0.6900.855$292.71+$56.49
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes0.1290.065$207.15$202.53
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? · No0.5430.999$199.60+$91.02
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes0.5370.101$176.32$761.62
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.1500.080$160.00$140.00
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? · No0.9300.974$154.94+$6.83
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes0.2870.115$125.88$187.92
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes0.1300.055$110.00$150.00
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series? · No0.9550.942$70.80$1.02
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5040.085$70.48$347.36
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.1500.115$66.07$20.11
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? · Yes0.2350.652$65.25+$41.75
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? · Yes0.3540.115$50.28$104.66
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes0.1250.033$26.98$75.45

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-29 05:36Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?SELL0.84$84.00
06-27 03:09Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.81$0.55
06-27 01:17Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.04$0.75
06-26 19:34Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.989$4.95
06-26 19:22Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.996$30.55
06-26 19:22Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.996$41.75
06-26 19:22Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.966$483.00
06-26 19:22Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.987$323.78
06-26 18:56Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.9$0.51
06-26 18:56Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.91$4.90
06-26 16:01Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?SELL0.12$18.42
06-26 14:14Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?SELL0.5$50.00
06-25 23:02Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?SELL0.37$29.46
06-25 23:02Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?SELL0.37$1.85
06-25 23:01Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?SELL0.37$105.82