0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA9604
0x8a98109fb0f1d87d9bfcb4486ba3587b95c51b92
- Realised P&L
- $140.5k
- Volume
- $38.65M
- Markets traded
- 1,194
- Open portfolio
- $2.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,194
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.8kat 0.989US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$3.5kat 0.861US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
- +$3.3kat 0.982US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.0kat 0.984Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
- +$2.6kat 0.056Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-29 05:36 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | SELL | 0.84 | $84.00 |
| 06-27 03:09 | Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.81 | $0.55 |
| 06-27 01:17 | Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.75 |
| 06-26 19:34 | Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.989 | $4.95 |
| 06-26 19:22 | Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.996 | $30.55 |
| 06-26 19:22 | Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.996 | $41.75 |
| 06-26 19:22 | Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.966 | $483.00 |
| 06-26 19:22 | Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.987 | $323.78 |
| 06-26 18:56 | Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.9 | $0.51 |
| 06-26 18:56 | Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.91 | $4.90 |
| 06-26 16:01 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $18.42 |
| 06-26 14:14 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? | SELL | 0.5 | $50.00 |
| 06-25 23:02 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | SELL | 0.37 | $29.46 |
| 06-25 23:02 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | SELL | 0.37 | $1.85 |
| 06-25 23:01 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | SELL | 0.37 | $105.82 |