occasionalAwareness
0x8a4c788f043023b8b28a762216d037e9f148532b
- Realised P&L
- $1.15M
- Volume
- $104.21M
- Markets traded
- 1,022
- Open portfolio
- $174.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,022
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration11.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$139.6kat 0.265Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
- +$138.3kat 0.001Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 6, 2023?
- +$87.7kat 0.340Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$77.2kat 0.004Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
- +$71.7kat 0.011Was Trump hacked?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 20:54 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.81 | $1.1k |
| 09-15 17:18 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%? | BUY | 0.1455976451 | $120.69 |
| 09-15 16:09 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $68.01 |
| 09-13 14:15 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | SELL | 0.89 | $534.00 |
| 09-13 10:40 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | SELL | 0.89 | $3.9k |
| 09-13 08:30 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.017 | $19.12 |
| 09-12 19:39 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.030896 | $15.45 |
| 09-11 07:09 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.84 | $3.8k |
| 09-09 20:55 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | SELL | 0.12 | $120.00 |
| 09-08 18:17 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.6544510978 | $32.79 |
| 09-08 17:32 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.6463359165 | $2.4k |
| 09-08 17:30 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.7 | $34.93 |
| 09-08 17:29 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8707996612 | $8.2k |
| 09-08 08:37 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $107.52 |
| 09-07 05:04 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.997 | $5.0k |