the-special
0x7a162336444f3eba14dda90ce795987709074616
- Realised P&L
- $43.64
- Volume
- $19.1k
- Markets traded
- 112
- Open portfolio
- $175.70
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded112
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)8.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$154.16at 0.053Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- +$76.68at 0.128Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
- +$38.45at 0.295Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
- +$35.54at 0.337Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
- +$33.39at 0.342Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 20:15 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.41 |
| 09-11 20:14 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0359999997 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 20:14 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0149999999 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 20:14 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1799999856 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 20:12 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? | SELL | 0.83 | $4.98 |
| 09-11 19:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 19:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0359999997 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 17:31 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 17:31 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0630728294 | $2.00 |
| 08-31 17:31 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0339999838 | $2.00 |
| 08-31 17:16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.59 | $6.32 |
| 08-28 19:50 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.80 |
| 08-28 19:50 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 08-28 19:49 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.40 |
| 08-28 18:48 | Trump out as President by August 31? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.02 |