the-special
0x7a162336444f3eba14dda90ce795987709074616
- Realised P&L
- $111.04
- Volume
- $19.8k
- Markets traded
- 114
- Open portfolio
- $137.20
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded114
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$154.16at 0.053Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- +$76.68at 0.128Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
- +$38.45at 0.295Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
- +$35.54at 0.337Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
- +$33.39at 0.342Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-23 10:51 | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 17:37 | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.034 | $1.02 |
| 10-22 17:37 | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.033 | $1.49 |
| 10-22 17:36 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | SELL | 0.189 | $4.08 |
| 10-21 16:33 | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0489999982 | $1.00 |
| 10-21 16:33 | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0489999982 | $1.00 |
| 10-21 16:33 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | SELL | 0.248 | $4.05 |
| 10-19 18:01 | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0389999998 | $4.00 |
| 10-19 18:01 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0409999998 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 12:01 | Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0191239692 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 12:00 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0429999999 | $2.00 |
| 09-25 23:04 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? | SELL | 0.865 | $38.22 |
| 09-11 20:15 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.41 |
| 09-11 20:14 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0359999997 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 20:14 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0149999999 | $1.00 |