dfobos
0x78f51bd0e97d058d6e8c6085b5ce1d292bbebccd
- Realised P&L
- $4.86
- Volume
- $5.8k
- Markets traded
- 119
- Open portfolio
- $120.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded119
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration4.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.40at 0.784Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$2.34at 0.520Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
- +$1.95at 0.230Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 25?
- +$1.57at 0.225Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
- +$1.37at 0.339Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 00:37 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $1.88 |
| 10-18 18:44 | Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Romania? | BUY | 0.9899998115 | $4.99 |
| 10-18 17:56 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? | BUY | 0.6799999346 | $4.99 |
| 10-18 17:56 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.62 |
| 10-18 17:42 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.32 | $3.44 |
| 10-18 17:42 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.1299999963 | $1.39 |
| 10-18 17:42 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.465 | $5.00 |
| 10-18 17:42 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.87 | $5.05 |
| 10-18 17:42 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.68 | $3.94 |
| 10-18 17:42 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.536 | $3.11 |
| 10-18 16:54 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | SELL | 0.73 | $5.70 |
| 10-18 16:53 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.14 | $1.09 |
| 10-18 02:29 | Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25? | BUY | 0.64 | $3.91 |
| 10-18 02:29 | Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25? | BUY | 0.8099999951 | $4.94 |
| 10-18 02:29 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25? | BUY | 0.64 | $3.91 |