0x74f391d340fdeced946bdc43c75127c471c8b2e0
0x74f391d340fdeced946bdc43c75127c471c8b2e0
- Realised P&L
- $8.99
- Volume
- $365.74
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $8.65
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $184 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.535 | $1.24 | +$0.24 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.945 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.415 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.745 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.330 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.325 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.195 | $0.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.240 | $0.65 | −$0.35 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.415 | $0.58 | −$0.42 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.03at 0.227Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?
- +$5.62at 0.270Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$4.61at 0.308S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$4.60at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 00:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 16:37 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 08:17 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $184 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 23:24 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 11:51 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 01:57 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 15:56 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 07:54 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799995632 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 23:28 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 15:16 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 07:06 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 23:04 | Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 13:14 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 05:10 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 08:02 | Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |