Neogenesis
0x60128b4866c53bd4b722134fba408acd83ff7cd2
- Realised P&L
- $-6.3k
- Volume
- $243.0k
- Markets traded
- 272
- Open portfolio
- $6.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded272
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.287 | 0.650 | $4.7k | +$2.6k |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.148 | $1.5k | +$853.75 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.240 | $267.50 | +$221.01 |
| Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.018 | $161.71 | +$102.24 |
| Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.003 | $21.05 | −$23.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.448Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
- +$258.17at 0.542New Pope before July?
- +$223.14at 0.603Will Trump say 'crypto' or 'Bitcoin' during the 2025 State of the Union?
- +$200.32at 0.440Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday?
- +$192.00at 0.616Will Trump say “Autopen” during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 01:55 | Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.0625050322 | $3.79 |
| 09-10 23:51 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.96 |
| 09-10 23:49 | Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $7.13 |
| 09-10 23:48 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? | BUY | 0.59 | $9.71 |
| 09-10 23:47 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? | BUY | 0.5854251061 | $38.61 |
| 09-10 18:30 | Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.077 | $7.52 |
| 09-10 18:29 | Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.005154612 | $11.22 |
| 09-10 18:29 | Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.0054044544 | $5.29 |
| 09-08 22:21 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.00 |
| 09-08 21:06 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.985 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 16:31 | Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $19m and $22m? | BUY | 0.959 | $189.79 |
| 08-03 12:25 | Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $23m and $26m? | SELL | 0.9982337413 | $234.08 |
| 08-01 18:25 | Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $23m and $26m? | BUY | 0.991 | $73.96 |
| 07-26 10:59 | "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80–89%? | BUY | 0.966 | $19.32 |
| 07-20 19:08 | Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $13m? | SELL | 0.996 | $199.20 |