alternate01
0x5c4ce2053442cc7b19d300ffd39b7f38cd138131
- Realised P&L
- $-7.0k
- Volume
- $269.6k
- Markets traded
- 146
- Open portfolio
- $6.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded146
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$566.98at 0.944Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
- +$563.11at 0.954Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$293.81at 0.983Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$284.91at 0.962Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
- +$211.50at 0.656Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 04:40 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.631 | $44.17 |
| 09-24 04:40 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.672 | $26.88 |
| 09-18 07:20 | US strike on Colombia by December 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $59.50 |
| 09-16 17:47 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $81.00 |
| 09-12 07:38 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15? | SELL | 0.0021479086 | $0.97 |
| 08-24 10:36 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $84.00 |
| 08-24 10:27 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $39.50 |
| 08-24 10:26 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.945 | $283.50 |
| 08-22 08:19 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15? | SELL | 0.37 | $9.25 |
| 08-20 16:36 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1712902053 | $94.21 |
| 08-20 15:30 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2538993333 | $38.08 |
| 08-20 14:52 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.61405 | $122.81 |
| 08-20 14:36 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $35.00 |
| 08-20 07:20 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? | SELL | 0.015 | $0.60 |
| 08-20 07:20 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? | SELL | 0.015 | $0.60 |