PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Lan-U

0x4cbd4aefb064aa00521d28a1909b60afd4295007

Realised P&L
$-513.69
Volume
$23.4k
Markets traded
19
Open portfolio
$184.73

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded19
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
Not knownProfit concentration—
No settled positions sampled.
Not knownSettled sample0 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
ClearOpen concentration28.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1890.125$52.80−$27.20
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0950.035$28.73−$48.27
EU dissolves before 2027? · Yes0.0470.017$21.09−$38.91
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · Yes0.1350.017$18.51−$128.49
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? · Yes0.1000.015$18.21−$103.20
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · Yes0.1270.040$15.60−$34.40
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? · Yes0.8191.000$12.22+$2.22
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? · Yes0.0600.024$11.32−$17.57
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0070.007$5.36+$0.36
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0100.003$0.90−$2.10
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? · Yes0.0380.000$0.00−$15.00
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? · Yes0.0260.000$0.00−$60.00
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? · Yes0.0200.000$0.00−$40.00
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? · Yes0.0200.000$0.00−$40.00
US civil war before 2027? · Yes0.1010.000$0.00−$60.00

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-22 11:36Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?BUY0.8185907043$10.00
07-23 16:09Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0951558269$77.00
04-27 15:15Will Russia invade another country in 2026?BUY0.1266343111$50.00
04-27 15:14Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?BUY0.031$33.00
02-22 17:44US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?BUY0.0380000001$15.00
02-03 10:41Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?BUY0.0202858086$20.00
02-03 10:40Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?BUY0.02$20.00
02-03 10:40Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?BUY0.0131406045$20.00
02-03 10:40Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?BUY0.0043187838$20.00
02-01 20:24Another US bank failure by February 28?BUY0.1401636618$40.00
01-31 18:02Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?BUY0.02$20.00
01-31 18:02Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?BUY0.02$20.00
01-31 18:01Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?BUY0.0495458047$40.00
01-26 22:01Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?BUY0.0456790622$100.00
01-22 14:32Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?BUY0.06$28.89