PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x4b57cf70def99632f3f2c9fc318cd793536ceccf

0x4b57cf70def99632f3f2c9fc318cd793536ceccf

Realised P&L
$-2.00
Volume
$329.68
Markets traded
47
Open portfolio
$21.30

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded47
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration24.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
CautionSettled sample24 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)29.2%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.2190.767$3.50+$2.50
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes0.3090.979$3.17+$2.17
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.3890.971$2.50+$1.50
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.4100.845$2.06+$1.06
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes0.5200.955$1.84+$0.84
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.2500.270$1.08+$0.08
US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes0.2000.215$1.07+$0.07
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No0.6500.595$0.92−$0.08
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.2200.185$0.84−$0.16
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3200.215$0.67−$0.33
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1200.025$0.61−$2.39
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.2740.159$0.58−$0.42
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? · Yes0.1500.033$0.43−$1.57
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1440.060$0.42−$0.58
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.6100.225$0.37−$0.63

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-02 05:26Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2027?BUY0.25$1.00
07-19 21:07Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?BUY0.05$1.00
07-02 07:07Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.2129998633$1.00
07-02 07:05Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.6099998597$1.00
07-02 07:05Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.2189998312$1.00
07-02 07:04Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY0.12$3.00
06-21 19:30Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.2699998542$1.00
06-21 19:29Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?BUY0.6899999586$1.00
06-21 19:29Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1949998479$1.00
06-21 19:29Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.2599998648$1.00
05-16 10:58Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country?BUY0.025$1.00
05-11 20:28US strike on Colombia by December 31?BUY0.2$1.00
05-11 20:26Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?BUY0.5$1.00
05-11 20:22US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?BUY0.3099998295$1.00
05-07 17:04Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?BUY0.0969999157$1.00