0x4b491f3463cc0e5bbadcf8c2fbdc1848ea4b97a2
0x4b491f3463cc0e5bbadcf8c2fbdc1848ea4b97a2
- Realised P&L
- $3.40
- Volume
- $0.00
- Markets traded
- 0
- Open portfolio
- $81.09
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- BlockerMarkets traded0
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? · Yes | 0.958 | 0.975 | $38.08 | +$0.65 |
| Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? · No | 0.949 | 0.982 | $23.76 | +$0.79 |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? · Yes | 0.552 | 0.435 | $8.60 | −$2.32 |
| Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.270 | $2.57 | −$0.76 |
| Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? · Yes | 0.163 | 0.125 | $2.26 | −$0.70 |
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31? · Yes | 0.187 | 0.115 | $1.99 | −$1.25 |
| Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.124 | 0.035 | $1.73 | −$4.32 |
| Will Elon Musk be TIME Person of the Year 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.060 | $0.90 | −$1.19 |
| Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.026 | $0.74 | −$2.87 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.084 | 0.009 | $0.30 | −$2.69 |
| Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.024 | $0.18 | −$0.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.40at 0.590Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $352.50 Week of August 17 2026?