v1notlost
0x48f97930ac76cf00a8cc95deea81704f7f08e61d
- Realised P&L
- $-3.7k
- Volume
- $699.0k
- Markets traded
- 266
- Open portfolio
- $1.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded266
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.216S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11?
- +$1.8kat 0.049Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$785.46at 0.965S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16?
- +$672.84at 0.690S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?
- +$370.39at 0.747US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 04:24 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $7.07 |
| 09-05 19:09 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.029 | $24.56 |
| 09-05 19:09 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $18.17 |
| 09-05 19:08 | European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? | BUY | 0.10642 | $10.64 |
| 09-05 19:06 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.0714598131 | $7.65 |
| 09-05 19:04 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $30.33 |
| 09-04 23:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.266682 | $13.33 |
| 09-04 23:01 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $28.00 |
| 09-04 23:00 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $10.40 |
| 09-01 04:38 | Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.0037019334 | $11.12 |
| 08-31 19:54 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.013 | $1.30 |
| 08-31 19:54 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.013 | $22.10 |
| 08-20 10:36 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.029 | $14.50 |
| 08-18 01:36 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.00 |
| 08-18 01:35 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $24.00 |