0x44c07c20a29c93b11bd75d7c429378fea8e93f6b
0x44c07c20a29c93b11bd75d7c429378fea8e93f6b
- Realised P&L
- $3.57
- Volume
- $313.16
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $8.09
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.305 | $1.22 | +$0.22 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.927 | $1.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.280 | $1.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? · No | 0.640 | 0.735 | $1.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.865 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on October 5? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.785 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.425 | $0.59 | −$0.41 |
| Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? · No | 0.790 | 0.410 | $0.52 | −$0.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$6.33at 0.240US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$4.60at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$3.99at 0.341Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 04:16 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on October 5? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 20:16 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 11:55 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 20:34 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 08:06 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 23:38 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 15:05 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 07:02 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 10:46 | Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 02:38 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 17:29 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 09:25 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 00:19 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 16:17 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 08:17 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |