GA6300BD
0x41a43ce1adf17406f06ed3f56a16468147f04187
- Realised P&L
- $995.33
- Volume
- $89.6k
- Markets traded
- 249
- Open portfolio
- $59.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded249
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · No | 0.570 | 0.305 | $24.40 | −$21.20 |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.919 | 0.986 | $21.45 | +$1.45 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.528 | 0.485 | $6.43 | −$0.57 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.353 | 0.178 | $3.03 | −$2.97 |
| Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.065 | $2.61 | −$3.81 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.199 | $0.66 | −$0.34 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.081 | $0.42 | −$0.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$575.19at 0.068Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?
- +$240.67at 0.167Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
- +$202.09at 0.390Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
- +$129.15at 0.213Will Green Day perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
- +$125.88at 0.267Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 09:23 | Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.39 | $7.80 |
| 10-08 09:09 | Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.1599501247 | $6.41 |
| 10-08 09:09 | Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.57 | $56.99 |
| 10-08 09:09 | Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.425777699 | $100.32 |
| 10-08 06:56 | Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.43 | $3.01 |
| 10-05 01:29 | Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.16 | $7.04 |
| 10-04 20:32 | Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.41 | $15.58 |
| 10-03 22:58 | Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.218149038 | $82.50 |
| 10-02 16:39 | Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.33 | $13.20 |
| 09-27 22:10 | Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | SELL | 0.02 | $3.15 |
| 09-27 22:09 | Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.22 |
| 09-27 22:09 | Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.80 |
| 09-27 22:09 | Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.18 |
| 09-27 21:50 | Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.1028750898 | $32.92 |
| 09-27 21:50 | Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.0951435035 | $20.19 |