PolyBot

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Traders

0x418614B0D795855B5467674C88d271E5a0F5Ee77-1768935952178

0x418614b0d795855b5467674c88d271e5a0f5ee77

Realised P&L
$113.77
Volume
$9.4k
Markets traded
113
Open portfolio
$155.97

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded113
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration20.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.2040.658$32.25+$22.25
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.5700.535$18.77−$1.23
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.2080.151$18.15−$6.85
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? · Yes0.3900.705$18.08+$8.08
Will Jensen Huang be 3rd richest person on December 31? · Yes0.1830.257$14.05+$4.05
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? · Yes0.5400.675$12.50+$2.50
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.7000.825$11.79+$1.79
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.2730.178$9.81−$5.19
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.4400.135$7.67−$17.33
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · Yes0.3400.130$5.74−$9.26
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · Yes0.1600.052$2.60−$5.40
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0400.004$1.00−$9.00
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? · Yes0.3000.028$0.93−$9.07
Will Timothée Chalamet be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? · Yes0.5950.035$0.88−$14.12
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.3100.023$0.74−$9.26

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-16 16:50Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?BUY0.5199999813$10.00
08-16 16:36Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?BUY0.5399999903$10.00
08-16 16:15Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?BUY0.5$10.00
08-12 19:07Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?BUY0.2039999873$10.00
08-12 19:00Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?BUY0.7299999942$15.00
07-14 18:33Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.372$33.21
07-05 18:11Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.123$10.54
06-14 19:46Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?BUY0.4699999915$10.00
06-14 19:29Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?BUY0.4799998272$1.00
06-10 17:55Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.4399999965$25.00
06-10 17:44Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (High)?BUY0.2$10.00
06-10 17:26Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?BUY0.2099999861$10.00
06-04 20:01Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?BUY0.389999986$10.00
06-04 19:59Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?BUY0.0399735375$10.00
06-04 19:54Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO?BUY0.1285770178$10.00