PolyBot

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Traders

poluser2026

0x40a75b220015685d7c9f67f3f25836fe359091c9

Realised P&L
$-214.02
Volume
$451.8k
Markets traded
27
Open portfolio
$2.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded27
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration36.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample8 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration71.4% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? · Yes0.1450.205$1.4k+$421.96
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? · Yes0.0630.044$181.51−$75.10
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes0.4500.275$150.37−$95.69
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.0320.006$135.71−$531.77
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0070.007$84.17+$2.73
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be at least $6.50T at the end of 2026? · Yes0.2010.060$15.05−$35.42
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.0090.002$4.49−$22.45
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.0160.003$2.52−$13.62
Will SpaceX be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.0100.004$0.81−$1.43
Will SpaceX be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.0080.005$0.10−$0.04
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by July 31? · Yes0.0360.000$0.00−$20.09
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.0510.000$0.00−$25.89
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.3060.000$0.00−$264.34
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in August? · Yes0.0540.000$0.00−$17.28
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00−$60.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-12 18:54Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?SELL0.03$10.38
10-12 18:52Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.23$2.07
10-12 18:52Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.23$6.42
10-12 18:51Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?SELL0.031$7.37
10-04 23:42Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?BUY0.45$246.06
10-04 23:42Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.31$255.86
09-16 01:39Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.12$12.00
09-16 01:39Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.12$48.00
09-16 01:38Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?SELL0.29$381.11
09-16 01:34Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?SELL0.0902891433$34.23
09-16 01:34Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?SELL0.059$14.75
09-04 00:07Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.025$7.93
09-04 00:07Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.025$10.00
09-04 00:07Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.0240471333$7.21
09-04 00:05Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be at least $6.50T at the end of 2026?BUY0.2069360398$27.02