poluser2026
0x40a75b220015685d7c9f67f3f25836fe359091c9
- Realised P&L
- $-214.02
- Volume
- $451.8k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$123.36at 0.393Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$118.86at 0.049Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
- +$55.27at 0.046Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?
- +$31.27at 0.027Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
- +$6.08at 0.213Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 18:54 | Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.03 | $10.38 |
| 10-12 18:52 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.07 |
| 10-12 18:52 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $6.42 |
| 10-12 18:51 | Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.031 | $7.37 |
| 10-04 23:42 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $246.06 |
| 10-04 23:42 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $255.86 |
| 09-16 01:39 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.12 | $12.00 |
| 09-16 01:39 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.12 | $48.00 |
| 09-16 01:38 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.29 | $381.11 |
| 09-16 01:34 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.0902891433 | $34.23 |
| 09-16 01:34 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.059 | $14.75 |
| 09-04 00:07 | Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.025 | $7.93 |
| 09-04 00:07 | Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.025 | $10.00 |
| 09-04 00:07 | Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.0240471333 | $7.21 |
| 09-04 00:05 | Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be at least $6.50T at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.2069360398 | $27.02 |