5-testfollower-car
0x3be56dec80a7ec937580b5a4daec22fb5e31f7fe
- Realised P&L
- $-61.14
- Volume
- $19.3k
- Markets traded
- 740
- Open portfolio
- $817.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded740
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.69at 0.034US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
- +$6.51at 0.904US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$5.96at 0.876US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?
- +$5.86at 0.998Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?
- +$5.82at 0.250Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 18:56 | Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.48 |
| 10-02 14:28 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $4.49 |
| 10-02 11:18 | Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $2.95 |
| 10-02 11:17 | Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $2.95 |
| 10-02 11:17 | Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31? | SELL | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 10-02 09:32 | Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by October 31? | SELL | 0.27 | $1.34 |
| 10-02 09:25 | Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by October 31? | SELL | 0.69 | $3.42 |
| 10-02 09:18 | Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman by October 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.37 |
| 10-02 06:19 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.00 |
| 10-02 02:07 | Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman by October 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 10-01 23:12 | Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.7099998663 | $3.61 |
| 10-01 22:59 | Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 10-01 22:09 | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | SELL | 0.81 | $2.54 |
| 10-01 18:53 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.97 | $0.78 |
| 10-01 18:45 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $3.40 |