0x31ad2c014a49617cf03edba4dff33843f6104073
0x31ad2c014a49617cf03edba4dff33843f6104073
- Realised P&L
- $-530.57
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $314.61
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-19.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration88.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.845 | $169.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.365 | $36.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.446 | 0.335 | $30.23 | −$10.02 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes | 0.426 | 0.720 | $27.52 | +$11.23 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? · No | 0.550 | 0.780 | $27.30 | +$8.04 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.407 | $20.38 | −$0.62 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.870 | $3.69 | +$0.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$60.16at 0.699Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
- +$7.71at 0.211Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$-7.88at 0.402Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?
- +$-8.01at 0.270Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
- +$-15.94at 0.192Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 21:56 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $36.00 |
| 10-29 08:21 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.012 | $0.87 |
| 10-28 17:18 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.35 |
| 10-27 21:05 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.14 | $3.13 |
| 10-27 20:51 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.19 | $4.25 |
| 10-27 20:40 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.15 | $3.85 |
| 10-27 16:59 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026? | SELL | 0.2642291927 | $14.83 |
| 10-26 20:03 | Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | SELL | 0.011 | $3.00 |
| 10-25 16:21 | Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | SELL | 0.438 | $15.75 |
| 10-24 07:39 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $18.60 |
| 10-23 07:38 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.44 | $19.00 |
| 10-22 22:02 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.40 |
| 10-22 22:01 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $6.46 |
| 10-22 22:00 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $11.66 |
| 10-22 22:00 | Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.54 | $9.18 |