0x1e92f5a64d6d2cc4a42c534c88f7d082a36a479e
0x1e92f5a64d6d2cc4a42c534c88f7d082a36a479e
- Realised P&L
- $10.69
- Volume
- $468.83
- Markets traded
- 120
- Open portfolio
- $6.90
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded120
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.651 | $2.51 | +$1.51 |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $730 Week of October 5 2026? · No | 0.350 | 0.415 | $1.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.245 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.675 | $0.89 | −$0.11 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.185 | $0.71 | −$0.29 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.225 | $0.56 | −$0.44 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.022 | $0.06 | −$0.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$3.49at 0.371Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.41at 0.370US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$3.20at 0.392Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 05:29 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 21:29 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $730 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 12:41 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 5? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 15:30 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 04:26 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 19:43 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 21:09 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 12:35 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 03:36 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 18:43 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 10:39 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799996464 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 02:32 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 18:19 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 10:14 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 02:13 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $517.50 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |