Winedrinker
0x1aeb1e40599b76f5a3061dce387b7de604fb0189
- Realised P&L
- $-30.17
- Volume
- $10.3k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $71.85
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- ClearOpen concentration29.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? · Yes | 0.196 | 0.505 | $21.38 | +$13.08 |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? · Yes | 0.247 | 0.240 | $9.73 | −$0.27 |
| Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? · Yes | 0.145 | 0.130 | $8.76 | −$1.00 |
| Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.245 | $7.21 | −$2.79 |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.105 | $6.56 | +$1.56 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.065 | $6.50 | −$3.50 |
| Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.155 | $5.00 | −$5.00 |
| Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? · Yes | 0.346 | 0.095 | $3.75 | −$9.93 |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.048 | $2.96 | −$1.73 |
| Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or below on June 30? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.89 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-05 06:47 | Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | BUY | 0.0759999854 | $4.69 |
| 06-29 20:07 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or below on June 30? | BUY | 0.0052969615 | $1.89 |
| 06-29 20:07 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.23 | $1.99 |
| 06-26 09:59 | Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? | BUY | 0.3463215835 | $13.68 |
| 06-26 06:58 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | BUY | 0.08 | $5.00 |
| 06-26 06:55 | Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? | BUY | 0.0242620276 | $10.00 |
| 06-26 06:53 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | BUY | 0.2466188555 | $10.00 |
| 06-26 06:53 | Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | BUY | 0.3400137774 | $10.00 |
| 06-26 06:51 | Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? | BUY | 0.001 | $9.00 |
| 06-26 06:49 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.196066898 | $10.00 |
| 06-25 12:11 | Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999836 | $10.00 |
| 06-25 12:10 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 06-25 08:02 | Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? | BUY | 0.1448476362 | $9.76 |