PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x1856747d92A55Ffe5F8294f1916Ae514E509506e-1775667332108

0x1856747d92a55ffe5f8294f1916ae514e509506e

Realised P&L
$1.0k
Volume
$27.7k
Markets traded
26
Open portfolio
$1.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar3.7%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded26
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration77.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample3 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration65.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.2940.175$994.13−$677.86
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · Yes0.0910.041$213.33−$266.66
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1870.183$97.86−$2.14
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.1300.095$73.08−$26.92
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · Yes0.1950.075$57.61−$92.39
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? · Yes0.0600.023$38.08−$61.92
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.1000.055$27.50−$22.50
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.1700.035$20.29−$79.71
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1400.021$7.32−$42.68
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? · No0.0430.000$0.00−$100.00
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? · No0.0400.000$0.00−$50.00
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? · Yes0.0450.000$0.00−$50.00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00−$20.00
Trump out as President by June 30? · Yes0.0720.000$0.00−$50.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No0.3300.000$0.00−$100.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-19 20:06Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?BUY0.0603974897$100.00
08-19 20:05China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?BUY0.0867616933$400.00
08-06 14:14Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.16$22.00
08-06 14:13Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?BUY0.1299999989$100.00
08-06 14:13Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?BUY0.1$50.00
07-27 18:12Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.2199999985$100.00
05-31 01:20Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?BUY0.1499999976$50.00
05-13 13:48Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?BUY0.2399999953$35.00
05-13 13:42Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.1869999986$100.00
05-07 13:55Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.2$50.00
05-05 07:02Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?BUY0.08$20.00
05-05 06:58Iran closes its airspace by May 8?BUY0.2299999968$50.00
05-05 06:55Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?BUY0.0699999969$20.00
05-05 06:55Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?BUY0.128$30.00
05-05 06:47China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?BUY0.1$30.00