PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Ferwhere

0x152fdae6b14b9131a61ec77ed61dda50f68da549

Realised P&L
$176.4k
Volume
$17.76M
Markets traded
162
Open portfolio
$18.5k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded162
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration79.9% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration53.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0240.017$9.9k$4.3k
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.0970.039$7.0k$10.5k
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1100.065$354.55$245.45
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · Yes0.0560.018$331.48$668.51
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes0.0390.005$233.71$1.4k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0450.011$231.71$768.28
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0540.038$212.22$87.78
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0610.050$161.85$38.15
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.0060.003$35.44$54.56
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026? · No0.2600.300$34.62+$4.62
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.0410.003$24.40$375.59
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? · Yes0.1850.073$7.90$12.10
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.0110.002$1.36$8.64
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026? · No0.2100.000$0.00$407.00
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.2030.000$0.00$400.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-10 15:26Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY0.0570461856$600.00
09-06 18:25Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?BUY0.0558111209$1.0k
09-04 18:11Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.0453151884$1000.00
09-04 18:09Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0158942596$852.12
09-04 18:09Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0249562903$147.88
07-19 21:58Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0692975495$15.00
07-19 21:39Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.4119999999$2.9k
07-19 20:50Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?BUY0.0891091931$500.00
07-17 14:04Exact Score: Any Other Score?BUY0.05$500.00
07-17 14:03Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Argentina?BUY0.0379999996$100.00
07-17 14:03Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?BUY0.0267891293$400.00
07-17 14:02Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY0.0643018868$300.00
07-17 14:01Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.412$5.0k
07-17 14:00Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?BUY0.2699999999$1.5k
07-14 20:38Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0393481203$600.00