PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

MM-BD

0x139c9c7db60e6f99034ce41bbfbad2db16a1a6f2

Realised P&L
$-87.82
Volume
$7.8k
Markets traded
364
Open portfolio
$13.80

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded364
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration19.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration48.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.3830.512$6.69+$1.69
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? · Yes0.2400.115$0.96$1.04
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.3400.065$0.96$4.04
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.4700.345$0.73$0.27
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes0.6400.465$0.73$0.27
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo · Yes0.2090.055$0.66$1.85
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? · Yes0.1800.117$0.65$0.35
US defaults on debt by 2027? · Yes0.0600.026$0.53$0.67
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? · Yes0.2900.140$0.48$0.52
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.3500.160$0.46$0.54
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes0.3000.065$0.38$1.36
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.3100.105$0.34$0.66
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? · Yes0.2600.028$0.21$1.79
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.1300.002$0.03$1.97
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? · Yes0.2600.000$0.00$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-15 03:46Will England win on 2026-07-15?BUY0.3524999656$4.00
07-06 23:59Will United States win on 2026-07-06?BUY0.3799998923$1.20
07-06 23:59Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL0.09$0.63
07-06 23:59Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?SELL0.11$0.58
07-05 01:24Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?BUY0.539999964$6.00
07-03 15:48Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?BUY0.8599999656$2.00
07-03 15:47Will Ghana win on 2026-07-03?BUY0.1099999521$2.00
07-03 15:47Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?BUY0.4099999446$2.00
07-02 10:24Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?BUY0.4799999309$2.50
07-02 10:24Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?BUY0.4324999297$3.00
07-02 10:23Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?BUY0.7474999838$3.00
07-01 01:24Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?BUY0.2599999646$5.00
07-01 01:23Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?BUY0.4099999446$2.00
06-28 11:45Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?BUY0.74$1.00
06-28 11:45Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?BUY0.16$2.00