kz-530
0x0ed45a8754f57633729cf430eba15ca12379c23b
- Realised P&L
- $132.10
- Volume
- $6.9k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $750.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.851 | 0.951 | $380.97 | +$39.87 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.963 | $144.45 | +$6.45 |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? · No | 0.727 | 0.735 | $95.56 | +$1.07 |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.915 | $91.50 | +$2.50 |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.958 | $33.51 | +$2.36 |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.895 | $4.47 | −$0.03 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET · Up | 0.353 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET · Up | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.87 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.663 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$132.66 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET · Up | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET · Down | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$298.01at 0.399Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$126.15at 0.581Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
- +$118.30at 0.725Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
- +$18.55at 0.916Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
- +$13.08at 0.869Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 08:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | BUY | 0.73 | $36.50 |
| 09-16 08:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET | SELL | 0.01 | $1.97 |
| 09-16 08:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET | BUY | 0.031124723 | $25.00 |
| 09-16 07:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | SELL | 0.13 | $1.38 |
| 09-16 07:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | BUY | 0.4699999944 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 07:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET | BUY | 0.5999999952 | $25.00 |
| 09-15 01:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | BUY | 0.352636249 | $50.00 |
| 09-14 13:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | BUY | 0.8908245075 | $200.00 |
| 09-14 10:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET | BUY | 0.4399999986 | $50.00 |
| 09-14 10:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET | BUY | 0.64 | $120.00 |
| 09-14 09:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET | BUY | 0.92 | $100.00 |
| 09-14 09:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET | BUY | 0.9 | $100.00 |
| 09-14 09:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET | BUY | 0.9471585237 | $50.00 |
| 09-14 09:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET | BUY | 0.9099999991 | $50.00 |
| 09-14 09:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET | BUY | 0.86 | $43.00 |