ourdemocracy
0x08c95f70b0565ee01fbb30705b61aa641616a2ef
- Realised P&L
- $3.9k
- Volume
- $4.29M
- Markets traded
- 640
- Open portfolio
- $29.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded640
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$182.6kat 0.531No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?
- +$60.9kat 0.322No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
- +$41.5kat 0.790Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$11.2kat 0.328Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
- +$7.2kat 0.847Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 22:09 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $860.00 |
| 10-26 22:08 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $2.8k |
| 10-19 08:34 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.971 | $194.22 |
| 10-19 08:33 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | BUY | 0.8697585474 | $180.11 |
| 10-19 08:32 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.2T by October 31? | BUY | 0.9641538462 | $125.34 |
| 10-14 12:47 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% in October? | BUY | 0.947002997 | $94.79 |
| 10-09 12:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October? | BUY | 0.981995 | $982.00 |
| 10-09 12:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October? | BUY | 0.97 | $514.31 |
| 10-09 12:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October? | BUY | 0.97 | $970.00 |
| 10-09 09:43 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $900B by October 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $48.10 |
| 10-09 09:42 | RFK Jr. Out by October 31? | BUY | 0.979 | $56.16 |
| 10-09 09:38 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in December? | BUY | 0.94 | $183.30 |
| 10-09 09:38 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.8164174 | $408.21 |
| 10-06 11:19 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in October? | BUY | 0.9752649858 | $78.91 |
| 10-06 11:18 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October? | BUY | 0.975 | $292.50 |