ourdemocracy
0x08c95f70b0565ee01fbb30705b61aa641616a2ef
- Realised P&L
- $5.9k
- Volume
- $4.32M
- Markets traded
- 613
- Open portfolio
- $42.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded613
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$135.3kat 0.644No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?
- +$43.7kat 0.500No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
- +$26.2kat 0.790Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$8.2kat 0.500Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
- +$3.8kat 0.500Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 03:09 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? | SELL | 0.94 | $66.29 |
| 09-16 03:09 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.84 | $42.41 |
| 09-16 03:08 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September? | BUY | 0.945 | $871.80 |
| 09-15 16:50 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September? | BUY | 0.908 | $90.80 |
| 09-15 16:47 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September? | SELL | 0.8839263903 | $2.0k |
| 09-15 16:44 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September? | SELL | 0.9015658285 | $754.36 |
| 09-11 07:32 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September? | BUY | 0.972 | $159.26 |
| 09-11 02:33 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? | BUY | 0.8439761905 | $35.45 |
| 09-11 02:31 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September? | BUY | 0.9099939561 | $10.4k |
| 09-11 02:28 | Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.20% in September? | BUY | 0.97 | $194.00 |
| 09-11 02:27 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September? | SELL | 0.0351526151 | $76.70 |
| 09-11 02:18 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $2.7k |
| 09-11 01:51 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6491965 | $129.84 |
| 09-11 01:51 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? | BUY | 0.9381964152 | $125.62 |
| 09-11 01:51 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | BUY | 0.9212589258 | $532.06 |