0x000c8cb93bb5fd4c9f292c6b4c5f7c021bb6bcf3
0x000c8cb93bb5fd4c9f292c6b4c5f7c021bb6bcf3
- Realised P&L
- $-311.7k
- Volume
- $21.28M
- Markets traded
- 406
- Open portfolio
- $8.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded406
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$148.3kat 0.336Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$60.8kat 0.646Will France win on 2026-07-09?
- +$48.7kat 0.335Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
- +$46.5kat 0.322Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?
- +$45.9kat 0.389Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 00:45 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.46 | $10.06 |
| 10-09 01:33 | Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.0249044911 | $5.56 |
| 10-08 23:35 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.3463360324 | $11.12 |
| 10-04 03:38 | Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.176 | $9.37 |
| 09-29 22:18 | Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.0949999993 | $10.15 |
| 09-20 09:31 | Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.9259999998 | $166.26 |
| 07-20 01:46 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? | BUY | 0.08 | $0.80 |
| 07-19 21:52 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0789999936 | $10.55 |
| 07-19 21:47 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.904 | $147.84 |
| 07-19 21:19 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3149999993 | $293.30 |
| 07-19 21:07 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.054999999 | $49.09 |
| 07-19 21:01 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.637 | $549.28 |
| 07-19 21:01 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.6389633943 | $3.8k |
| 07-19 21:01 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.6439989311 | $6.0k |
| 07-19 21:01 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.646 | $598.99 |