Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-07-01
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Rewards: 20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.73. up 0.48 over the period, from 0.26. Range 0.26 to 0.73. 7 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.74	639	639
0.75	424	1,063
0.76	73	1,136
0.94	10	1,146
0.95	60	1,206
0.96	100	1,306
0.99	29	1,335

Spread0.01Mid0.73

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.73	794	794
0.72	949	1,743
0.71	291	2,034
0.68	100	2,134
0.64	13	2,147
0.63	100	2,247
0.03	27	2,274
0.02	54	2,328
0.01	8	2,336

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.27	794	794
0.28	949	1,743
0.29	291	2,034
0.32	100	2,134
0.36	13	2,147
0.37	100	2,247
0.97	27	2,274
0.98	54	2,328
0.99	8	2,336

Spread0.01Mid0.27

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.26	639	639
0.25	424	1,063
0.24	73	1,136
0.06	10	1,146
0.05	60	1,206
0.04	100	1,306
0.01	29	1,335

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
AiBird	Yes	80.91
techhawk	Yes	40.54
OrionStars	Yes	40.54
AJSV	No	82
MaxwellBot32-2	No	40
0x16e7…2599	No	20
FB87dB8	No	19.99

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
05:22:44	BUY	Yes	0.74	41	$30.00
05:22:44	BUY	Yes	0.74	20	$14.80
05:22:42	BUY	Yes	0.739999997	41	$30.00
05:22:42	BUY	Yes	0.74	20	$14.80
02:36:51	SELL	No	0.26	20	$5.20
01:37:53	SELL	No	0.61	20	$12.20
01:37:24	BUY	No	0.32	40	$12.80
01:36:08	BUY	No	0.27	82	$22.14