PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

AiBird

0xa58d4f278d7953cd38eeb929f7e242bfc7c0b9b8

Realised P&L
$145.1k
Volume
$259.52M
Markets traded
10,715
Open portfolio
$20.6k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded10,715
Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
ClearProfit concentration20.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration9.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? · Yes0.1540.135$1.6k$224.28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.0680.055$1.5k$369.96
Will three people dissent the January Fed decision? · No0.6960.705$1.1k+$12.94
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0510.045$900.00$124.16
Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV? · No0.9010.905$871.52+$3.79
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2330.215$831.85$69.14
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? · No0.1540.145$822.30$49.94
Will ISM Services PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in September? · No0.7570.834$751.29+$69.34
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting? · Yes0.4680.465$631.71$3.45
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? · Yes0.8600.875$599.52+$10.33
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting? · No0.4140.385$438.87$32.68
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on September 30, 2026? · No0.5840.615$391.19+$19.61
Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September? · No0.7410.675$388.83$37.99
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? · Yes0.0660.025$376.48$592.33
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $19.5B by September 30? · Yes0.3700.995$368.23+$231.34

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 10:47No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?SELL0.5005207916$299.95
09-17 10:04Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.001$1.86
09-17 10:01No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.54$16.52
09-17 09:58Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.41$1.96
09-17 09:57Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.370487329$151.90
09-17 09:57No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.3675120773$152.15
09-17 09:24Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?SELL0.32$77.76
09-17 09:23Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?SELL0.29$68.97
09-17 08:20Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.50 on September 30, 2026?SELL0.2584524096$53.68
09-17 08:11Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?SELL0.7758328411$105.08
09-17 08:10Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in September?BUY0.72$65.68
09-17 08:07Will FactSet (FDS) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.1816891892$6.45
09-17 08:06Will FactSet (FDS) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.2902216428$44.52
09-17 07:56Will Jefferies (JEF) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.382972973$28.34
09-17 07:30Will JOLTS Job Openings be below 7.0M in August?BUY0.73$14.60