PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

AiBird

0xa58d4f278d7953cd38eeb929f7e242bfc7c0b9b8

Realised P&L
$120.8k
Volume
$261.58M
Markets traded
11,592
Open portfolio
$23.4k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded11,592
Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration17.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0760.075$3.5k−$60.66
Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? · Yes0.1340.105$1.6k−$430.82
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2350.141$1.5k−$988.06
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · No0.5250.475$1.3k−$136.49
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? · No0.1260.105$797.95−$158.37
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.1310.105$540.37−$131.39
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.1400.125$497.84−$57.88
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%? · No0.4830.435$471.12−$52.37
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of December 2026? · Yes0.3720.630$463.86+$189.76
Will China’s CPI increase by ≤0.6% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026? · Yes0.1870.234$462.05+$92.62
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of December 2026? · Yes0.2580.420$458.90+$176.82
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? · Yes0.1800.165$452.95−$41.17
Will Agapito win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? · No0.6860.805$452.38+$66.55
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0270.017$378.17−$240.47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1490.135$371.19−$39.88

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 23:06Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate at the November meeting?BUY0.1265843621$46.14
11-01 23:03Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?SELL0.3866666667$116.00
11-01 22:55Will Agapito win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?BUY0.6865846637$524.69
11-01 22:34Will Anthropic raise between $85B and $95B in its IPO?BUY0.1814599004$68.51
11-01 22:33Will Anthropic raise between $85B and $95B in its IPO?SELL0.204923339$60.14
11-01 22:26Tusk out by December 31?SELL0.0752$6.47
11-01 22:20Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?SELL0.13$142.09
11-01 22:18Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?SELL0.2381432135$427.72
11-01 22:13Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?SELL0.7838086835$213.20
11-01 14:30Will Trump speak to Elon Musk by November 30?SELL0.6590909091$145.00
11-01 14:30Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by November 30, 2026?SELL0.5513636364$121.30
11-01 14:25Will Felix Protocol launch a token by March 31, 2027?BUY0.5265753425$192.20
11-01 14:25Will Felix Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027?BUY0.51$204.00
11-01 14:17Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026?SELL0.17$64.60
11-01 14:11Will Trump speak to Elon Musk by November 30?SELL0.69$104.88