0x16e79aa022d6257d05de81c0520ba584feaf2599
0x16e79aa022d6257d05de81c0520ba584feaf2599
- Realised P&L
- $-23.76
- Volume
- $7.9k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $46.55
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)3.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuse launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.430 | $12.90 | −$7.80 |
| Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.465 | $9.30 | −$4.70 |
| Will Dallas Goedert have 374.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · No | 0.610 | 0.305 | $6.10 | −$6.10 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.610 | 0.265 | $5.30 | −$6.90 |
| Will Ceddanne Rafaela win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? · No | 0.460 | 0.260 | $5.20 | −$4.00 |
| Will Derrick Henry have 14.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · No | 0.420 | 0.255 | $4.84 | −$3.13 |
| Will there be at least 4200 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.490 | 0.145 | $2.90 | −$6.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.39at 0.640Will Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?
- +$-0.16at 0.046Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
- +$-0.20at 0.028Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$-0.22at 0.021Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$-0.26at 0.150Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 01:59 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.12 | $4.80 |
| 10-01 01:51 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.12 | $3.36 |
| 10-01 01:18 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.004 | $3.86 |
| 10-01 01:16 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.023 | $6.67 |
| 10-01 01:15 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $8.84 |
| 10-01 01:07 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $5.80 |
| 10-01 01:03 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $4.80 |
| 10-01 01:02 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.024 | $6.96 |
| 10-01 00:54 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.005 | $4.83 |
| 10-01 00:50 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.21 | $11.13 |
| 10-01 00:40 | Will Florida Gators win the 2027 CFP National Championship? | SELL | 0.059 | $9.44 |
| 10-01 00:27 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $2.10 |
| 10-01 00:25 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $1.54 |
| 10-01 00:17 | Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.005 | $5.05 |
| 10-01 00:12 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.045 | $4.59 |