PolyBot

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Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by December 31, 2026?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2027-01-01
Resolves by
https://microsoft.ai/models
Rewards
20 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.59. up 0.10 over the period, from 0.48. Range 0.43 to 0.65. 166 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.626060
0.6340100
0.8973173
0.9010183
0.915188
0.9213200
0.9417217
0.9515232
0.9625257
0.9814271
0.9936307

Spread0.06Mid0.59

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.56156156
0.5540196
0.5220216
0.3027243
0.2920263
0.285268
0.115273
0.078281
0.06150431
0.05250681
0.045001,181
0.031,0002,181

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.44156156
0.4540196
0.4820216
0.7027243
0.7120263
0.725268
0.895273
0.938281
0.94150431
0.95250681
0.965001,181
0.971,0002,181

Spread0.06Mid0.41

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.386060
0.3740100
0.1173173
0.1010183
0.095188
0.0813200
0.0617217
0.0515232
0.0425257
0.0214271
0.0136307

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
AJSVYes165.72
pootytherewardfarmerYes20.9
LornaPredictsNo40
jhuusNo22
Tallguy2527No20
evro100No20
0x99bc…4f35No20
smarterstratNo20
UpTheStairsNo17.55
silverstudNo15
RockyBroNo5
0xa39Fe164c54030B5f3Dc3D93Ac550a8Bed83fBDB-1768116899785No5
WhiteRiceHoldCoNo2.34

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
06:41:01BUYYes0.5220$10.40
06:41:01BUYYes0.51102$52.02
23:18:00BUYYes0.513$6.72
23:13:52SELLYes0.487$3.57
23:13:49SELLYes0.486$2.88
14:08:57SELLYes0.4520$9.00
14:08:05BUYNo0.4361$26.19
21:35:35SELLYes0.4420$8.80
08:42:08BUYNo0.4340$17.20
21:04:08SELLYes0.5620$11.20
17:41:43BUYYes0.4720$9.40
02:08:29BUYNo0.4220$8.40
20:39:56BUYYes0.5420$10.80
13:42:05SELLNo0.4420$8.80
16:44:01BUYYes0.5660$33.60
12:55:09BUYYes0.509999994738$19.15
10:50:22BUYYes0.348$2.62
10:40:23BUYYes0.3715$5.55
12:01:35SELLYes0.148$1.12
12:01:32BUYNo0.62$1.40
11:53:08SELLNo0.304285714370$21.30
10:59:22BUYYes0.435$2.15
10:58:49BUYYes0.426$2.48
10:58:41BUYNo0.5746640$22.99
10:48:16BUYYes0.432197802291$39.33