Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or above $15 in 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
Rewards: 20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.28. down 0.22 over the period, from 0.50. Range 0.10 to 0.73. 118 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.48	5	5
0.49	26	31
0.50	18	49
0.52	5	54
0.60	33	86
0.66	5	91
0.74	80	171
0.90	21	192
0.95	7	199
0.96	9	208
0.99	42	251

Spread0.39Mid0.28

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.09	139	139
0.08	5	144
0.06	45	189
0.05	52	241
0.04	88	328
0.02	18	347
0.01	187	533

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.91	139	139
0.92	5	144
0.94	45	189
0.95	52	241
0.96	88	328
0.98	18	347
0.99	187	533

Spread0.39Mid0.72

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.52	5	5
0.51	26	31
0.50	18	49
0.48	5	54
0.40	33	86
0.34	5	91
0.26	80	171
0.10	21	192
0.05	7	199
0.04	9	208
0.01	42	251

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
rubby1337	Yes	32.73
VonVonagh	Yes	25.56
G24L8	Yes	20
UpTheStairs	Yes	20
0xd5db…0f81	Yes	20
hgr1	Yes	10.2
xixihaha009	Yes	5.98
Scoopdewhoop	Yes	5
AJSV	No	94.82
Kronk1	No	25.56
konstantino	No	20

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
00:16:20	BUY	No	0.6	40	$24.00
23:08:50	BUY	No	0.61	20	$12.20
22:28:18	BUY	No	0.9	26	$23.00
17:26:39	SELL	Yes	0.29	1	$0.31
17:26:39	SELL	Yes	0.29	19	$5.49
17:21:20	BUY	Yes	0.5099998215	2	$1.00
17:17:51	BUY	Yes	0.4899999824	10	$5.00
17:17:50	BUY	Yes	0.4899999873	19	$9.28
17:17:50	BUY	Yes	0.4899999866	6	$2.93
17:17:50	BUY	Yes	0.49	5	$2.45
17:17:50	BUY	Yes	0.49	20	$9.80
06:21:35	SELL	No	0.85	20	$17.00
06:21:29	BUY	Yes	0.1499999982	27	$4.09
04:35:20	SELL	Yes	0.03	20	$0.60
04:30:09	BUY	No	0.66	20	$13.20
06:35:05	BUY	No	0.5	10	$5.00
06:34:47	BUY	No	0.5	10	$5.00
17:46:36	BUY	No	0.14	20	$2.80
17:43:15	BUY	Yes	0.5	20	$10.00