konstantino
0x4b5e1f8f7d941451bff9f9ce2100284d1c323805
- Realised P&L
- $-448.85
- Volume
- $15.3k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $367.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.893 | 0.855 | $272.46 | −$12.16 |
| Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.895 | $58.17 | −$0.32 |
| Will SB Energy IPO by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.925 | $36.91 | +$2.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$172.29at 0.468Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by February 28, 2026?
- +$74.91at 0.570More EU sanctions on Russia by December 31?
- +$66.18at 0.883Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the popular vote in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election by less than 4%?
- +$60.87at 0.451More EU sanctions on Russia by October 31?
- +$49.25at 0.670Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 20:27 | Will SB Energy IPO by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $33.91 |
| 09-17 11:27 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the popular vote in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election by less than 4%? | SELL | 0.999 | $569.43 |
| 09-16 17:32 | Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026? | SELL | 0.1146969167 | $13.76 |
| 09-12 12:53 | Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.9 | $58.49 |
| 09-11 12:02 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.89 | $35.59 |
| 09-09 06:34 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the popular vote in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election by less than 4%? | BUY | 0.8785964912 | $500.80 |
| 09-08 10:07 | Israel Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List? | BUY | 0.85 | $41.89 |
| 09-07 20:33 | Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.8931458876 | $284.62 |
| 09-07 20:31 | Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.8357585 | $100.29 |
| 04-20 08:32 | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8999999986 | $250.00 |
| 04-12 19:42 | Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | SELL | 0.09 | $24.06 |
| 04-08 21:26 | Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | SELL | 0.5 | $44.89 |
| 04-08 11:18 | Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | BUY | 0.7796352973 | $70.00 |
| 04-06 06:17 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | BUY | 0.75 | $72.50 |
| 04-02 08:41 | Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | BUY | 0.7491533333 | $198.21 |