Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?

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Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2026-09-30
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall
Rewards: 20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.85. up 0.07 over the period, from 0.78. Range 0.78 to 0.86. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.86	2,444	2,444
0.87	3,461	5,905
0.88	5,350	11,255
0.90	21	11,276
0.92	10	11,286
0.94	55	11,341
0.95	244	11,585
0.96	295	11,880
0.97	510	12,390
0.98	1,080	13,470
0.99	2,420	15,890

Spread0.02Mid0.85

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.84	1,085	1,085
0.83	1,677	2,762
0.82	193	2,955
0.81	9	2,963
0.80	105	3,068
0.79	1,114	4,182
0.78	1,000	5,182
0.21	17	5,200
0.20	500	5,700
0.05	310	6,010
0.04	500	6,510
0.02	750	7,260

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.16	1,085	1,085
0.17	1,677	2,762
0.18	193	2,955
0.19	9	2,963
0.20	105	3,068
0.21	1,114	4,182
0.22	1,000	5,182
0.79	17	5,200
0.80	500	5,700
0.95	310	6,010
0.96	500	6,510
0.98	750	7,260

Spread0.02Mid0.15

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.14	2,444	2,444
0.13	3,461	5,905
0.12	5,350	11,255
0.10	21	11,276
0.08	10	11,286
0.06	55	11,341
0.05	244	11,585
0.04	295	11,880
0.03	510	12,390
0.02	1,080	13,470
0.01	2,420	15,890

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
balthazar	Yes	600
gotaluism	Yes	80.91
x1099	Yes	65.04
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yes	35.71
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	25
77sfds	Yes	1.92
0x4FCb4D29b38d8eF1a988E6FE6f7EF2D79e120874-1770525270399	Yes	1.63
0xb28D76eb0cE4aA80e3423Ae909636206435A8F13-1777335102646	Yes	1.61
0xa5ef…2966	No	777.18
AJSV	No	19.49
Oklmntrader	No	8.51
ximi-m	No	5.01
Laribobibo	No	1.62

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
12:50:57	BUY	Yes	0.8	5	$4.00
04:52:21	SELL	No	0.2	2	$0.32
04:52:20	BUY	Yes	0.8	2	$1.29
00:24:18	SELL	No	0.2	2	$0.32
00:24:17	SELL	No	0.2	2	$0.32
00:24:15	SELL	No	0.2	2	$0.32
00:24:14	SELL	No	0.2	2	$0.32
00:24:06	SELL	No	0.2	2	$0.32
00:24:03	BUY	Yes	0.8	2	$1.30
16:45:59	BUY	No	0.21	10	$2.10
16:45:57	BUY	No	0.21	14	$2.83
15:44:47	SELL	No	0.2	9	$1.70
15:44:44	SELL	No	0.2	9	$1.70
11:51:21	BUY	No	0.21	10	$2.10
08:01:21	SELL	Yes	0.79	2	$1.74
08:01:18	SELL	Yes	0.79	2	$1.74
08:01:15	BUY	No	0.21	20	$4.20
07:58:09	BUY	No	0.21	20	$4.20
07:58:09	BUY	No	0.21	5	$1.05
14:53:20	SELL	Yes	0.78	7	$5.65
08:46:23	BUY	Yes	0.79	15	$11.85
16:46:55	BUY	No	0.17	20	$3.40
16:46:55	BUY	No	0.17	20	$3.40
14:51:37	BUY	No	0.2299998275	4	$1.00
12:38:58	BUY	No	0.239999856	4	$1.00