0x4FCb4D29b38d8eF1a988E6FE6f7EF2D79e120874-1770525270399
0x4fcb4d29b38d8ef1a988e6fe6f7ef2d79e120874
- Realised P&L
- $1.92
- Volume
- $20.1k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $1.38
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration69.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.850 | $1.38 | +$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.20at 0.590Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
- +$2.70at 0.892Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
- +$0.48at 0.900Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$0.19at 0.919Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?
- +$0.08at 0.950Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 00:24 | Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.30 |
| 07-20 23:49 | Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.57 |
| 06-05 01:14 | Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | BUY | 0.9919997977 | $1.02 |
| 06-05 01:13 | Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.994 | $1.18 |
| 06-05 01:13 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.975 | $2.11 |
| 05-09 01:12 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on May 10? | BUY | 0.9939999983 | $1.14 |
| 05-09 01:11 | Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates in May? | BUY | 0.9739997477 | $2.10 |
| 05-09 01:10 | Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.12 |
| 04-11 06:49 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 14°C on April 12? | BUY | 0.9979996581 | $1.15 |
| 04-11 06:48 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? | BUY | 0.9189999851 | $2.10 |
| 04-11 06:45 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.8999999163 | $4.30 |
| 03-07 00:31 | Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.975 | $1.70 |
| 03-06 11:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET | BUY | 0.94 | $4.69 |
| 03-06 11:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET | BUY | 0.88 | $17.50 |
| 03-06 08:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | SELL | 0.995 | $10.0k |