0xb28D76eb0cE4aA80e3423Ae909636206435A8F13-1777335102646
0xb28d76eb0ce4aa80e3423ae909636206435a8f13
- Realised P&L
- $-42.94
- Volume
- $20.3k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $1.37
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration19.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.850 | $1.37 | +$0.08 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8AM ET · Down | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1AM ET · Down | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.09at 0.960Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$0.09at 0.960Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
- +$0.09at 0.960Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
- +$0.07at 0.937Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.05at 0.979Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 04:52 | Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.29 |
| 07-14 05:51 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.18 |
| 06-09 06:02 | Will Trump and Putin not meet? | BUY | 0.9759999442 | $1.12 |
| 06-09 06:02 | Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.936999964 | $1.04 |
| 06-09 06:01 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9789999983 | $2.26 |
| 05-08 02:11 | Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? | BUY | 0.9909992767 | $1.14 |
| 05-08 02:10 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.13 |
| 05-08 02:09 | Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.15 |
| 05-01 00:04 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.10 |
| 04-30 12:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8AM ET | BUY | 0.015 | $0.07 |
| 04-30 01:38 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.996 | $9.1k |
| 04-30 01:17 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.997 | $9.1k |
| 04-28 00:15 | Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.9739998425 | $1.20 |