PolyBot

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Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2027-07-01
Resolves by
https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
Rewards
40 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.25. up 0.03 over the period, from 0.22. Range 0.15 to 0.41. 168 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.426262
0.4340102
0.5719121
0.7480201
0.9126226
0.926232
0.9710242
0.9920263

Spread0.26Mid0.29

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.162020
0.117393
0.1041134
0.075139
0.0325164
0.0276240
0.0185325

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.842020
0.897393
0.9041134
0.935139
0.9725164
0.9876240
0.9985325

Spread0.26Mid0.71

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.586262
0.5740102
0.4319121
0.2680201
0.0926226
0.086232
0.0310242
0.0120263

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
AJSVYes36.25
0xc0bc…1473Yes20
xixihaha009Yes1
SmartBoyBillyNo20
gaaaydogggggNo20
UpTheStairsNo6.25
lamykNo6
ZhouCDNo5

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
10:55:33SELLNo0.7620$15.20
08:32:33BUYYes0.2220$4.40
12:07:45SELLYes0.2229$6.43
08:13:41BUYNo0.820$16.00
17:52:35SELLYes0.275$1.35
17:52:33BUYNo0.7340$29.20
17:52:26BUYNo0.726$4.17
12:42:45SELLYes0.1110$1.10
06:01:38BUYYes0.45$2.00
01:44:39BUYNo0.886$5.28
19:54:47BUYNo0.769$6.52
12:25:14BUYYes0.256$1.50
10:05:17SELLYes0.386$2.38
22:43:12BUYYes0.26$1.25
20:52:56BUYYes0.1820$3.60
20:52:47BUYYes0.179999996635$6.27