0xc0bce43fe962cf77ecb1b57ded9cf7ba17781473
0xc0bce43fe962cf77ecb1b57ded9cf7ba17781473
- Realised P&L
- $-214.08
- Volume
- $11.9k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $38.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamdani visits the White House by December 31? · No | 0.710 | 0.715 | $14.30 | +$0.10 |
| Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.470 | 0.670 | $13.40 | +$4.00 |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.365 | $7.30 | +$3.30 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly praise Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.480 | 0.675 | $3.38 | +$0.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.00at 0.670Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
- +$0.00at 0.800Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- +$-0.12at 0.787Will the Democratic Party win the TX-34 House seat?
- +$-0.15at 0.760Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$-0.42at 0.640Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 09:46 | Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31? | SELL | 0.39 | $7.80 |
| 10-02 09:31 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.95% in October? | SELL | 0.24 | $4.80 |
| 10-02 09:27 | Will BC.Game Esports qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? | SELL | 0.56 | $11.20 |
| 10-02 09:20 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.20 |
| 10-02 08:55 | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 6? | SELL | 0.69 | $13.80 |
| 10-02 08:54 | Will Claude Opus's output price be at or below $10 in 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $9.84 |
| 10-02 08:43 | Will Donald Trump visit New Hampshire before the midterms? | SELL | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 10-02 08:23 | Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.1359583333 | $1.63 |
| 10-02 08:22 | Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 07-19 15:06 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.6488794175 | $109.62 |
| 07-19 13:26 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | SELL | 0.67 | $33.50 |
| 07-19 13:26 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | SELL | 0.67 | $58.29 |
| 07-19 11:04 | Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more? | SELL | 0.51 | $47.85 |
| 07-19 06:51 | Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.6 | $145.10 |
| 07-19 05:16 | Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $152.99 |